Luck and Decisions

Last night, I found myself watching a high-stakes poker game on TV, a game that seemed to mirror the delicate balance between luck and decision-making that we all navigate in life. It was down to the final two players, both confident, both determined. With the intensity that only the last hand of a tournament can bring, they went all in. The crowd leaned in, breaths collectively held as the two players turned over their hands. Player A, to the audience’s disappointment, had only a 30% chance to win, as the graphic on the screen brightly displayed. Player B, sitting a little straighter, was the clear favorite with a solid 70% chance of taking it all. It seemed almost certain that Player B was about to clinch the win, grasping the trophy and the mountain of prize money just within reach. Then, in a matter of seconds, fate flipped the script. As the cards hit the felt, against all odds, Player A won the hand. The crowd erupted in cheers, the underdog celebrated, and Player B, stunned, quietly disappeared into the background. Player A was hailed as the victor, basking in the glow of luck’s favor. But just moments before, the entire universe—or at least the poker room—had been told that Player B was the overwhelming favorite to win.

Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.

Napoleon Bonaparte

If there’s one thing poker teaches us, it's that no single outcome tells the whole story. Just because Player A won this time doesn’t mean Player B made a bad decision. In fact, based on the probabilities, Player B was more likely to win. If they played that same hand again with the same cards, Player B would probably make the exact same move—and they’d be right to do so. Why? Because it’s not about the single outcome. It’s about making the best possible decision with the information at hand.

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